A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
