Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
